This global recession will turn into a “full-blown depression,” Nicu Harajchi, CEO of N1 Asset Management, said Friday, adding that global stimulus hasn’t come down to Main Street.
Wall Street is making money, while consumers aren’t, Harajchi told CNBC.
“We have seen the G20 coming out with cross border capital injections of $5 trillion this year… But a lot of this money hasn’t really come down to Main Street,” he said.
“When it comes down to corporate America, corporate Europe or even in Asia, in Japan, we are not seeing Main Street making any money,” he said. “Consumers are losing their jobs. They are struggling with their mortgages, with their credit. And we are just seeing this continuing.”
The $5 trillion injection is “monetary expansion,” according to Harajchi. “At some point, which we believe to be 2010/11, some of the central banks are going to recall some of that money and that will turn from monetary expansion to monetary contraction.”
He also said he doesn’t see the corporates or the public “being able to pay back that debt.”
“We see 2010 becoming a much more risky year than 2009,” he said.
Harajchi said unemployment data are “a leading indicator” instead of a lagging indicator.
Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewing Dolphin Securities, told CNBC that the recovery will depend on the improvement in cyclical sectors.
“The sooner companies generate their profits, and I think it is moving towards mainstream, it’s not just the financials now,” Lenhoff said. “If present trends continue, we’re talking about jobs being created sometime in the second quarter of next year. That could do a lot for consumer confidence.”
Weak Dollar is Everybody’s Friend
It is no longer up to the U.S. but more to the rest of the world to decide about the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, Harajchi said.
China and the Gulf countries which have their oil pegged to the dollar “would like to see some other currencies, maybe the euro, playing a more dominant role,” he said.
Lenhoff disagreed with Harajchi, saying he believes the dollar will continue to play a dominant role in global trade and global finance.
Central banks will continue to keep interest rates very low in order to avoid a depression, he said. The reason for the dollar’s recent weakness “is really down to Fed policy,” he added.
“The Federal Reserve has made it crystal clear that interest rates are staying where they are for an extended period of time. We’re getting to see a more confident tone to global growth, to a recovery, and as a result of that, we’re seeing the tolerance towards risk aversion drop and that in turn has washed back onto the dollar as investors go in search of risk assets,” he said.
“This is something we’re going to see for a while, until there is a change in Fed policy. That doesn’t seem imminent and certainly it doesn’t seem at all likely until sometime in the latter half of next year.”
The dollar’s depreciation will help boost the S&P 500 index over the coming quarters, Lenhoff told CNBC.
“A weak dollar is everybody’s friend,” he said.
“If the dollar serves the role of an additional stimulus in reflating the U.S, then I think that it’s very good,” he said.
“Old World Going Out;
New World Come In
1 the Old World of mischiefmaking and bloodshed is now on its way out in order to make room for the new world of Righteousness and Peace.
2 For the past 6,000 years we have had to live in an evil world that was designed to destroy the peace of man and to shed his blood.
3 All around the earth, there has not been one section of the world in which the Original Man has been or where he now lives that has not been touched or ruled by the evil of gods of the old world.
4 The God of Righteousness and peace, today, has Made His Appearance to Take to Himself the Rule of the Nations under the government of Peace, Freedom, Justice, and Equality.
5 Allah (God) Seeks to separate the evil from the good and the good from the evil. He Declared Himself as Coming to Seek and to Save the Black Man (so-called Negro) from his kidnappers (the white race).
6 Allah (God) Came to unite and Restore the Black Man again to his Own and Bless Him with the rule of the Nations of earth, as declared by the prophets, Abraham, Moses, and Jesus.
Fall of Ancient Babylon
7 In the Fall of Ancient Babylon Jer. 50:46, “At the noise of the taking of Babylon the earth is moved, and the cry is heard among the nations.” here the Bible teaches us and we see today, at the fall of the old world, there is a great noise of war, the fighting of war, the destruction of nations, towns, and cities and the killing of their citizens. There is disagreement and confusion of the heads of nations.
8 It is a very dreadful time that the populations of the earth are now living in. This is the time of the destruction of a world. It is not to be compared with the destruction of an organization or a few towns as it was in the days of Noah. The destruction today is the destruction of a whole world. The prophets could not have given us a better picture of what we may expect today than the picture of what took place in the fall of ancient Babylon.
9 The Earth, land, and sea are set in battle array. Every type of deadly weapon is fashioned and is now being used against man and man. See Holy Qur’an Chap. 30:41. There cannot be any peace for man under these conditions.”